2012 publication descriptioniccci 2012
publication descriptionThe simplest modelling for analyzing infectious disease called the SIR model ignores population demography such as births, deaths and migration. In fact people have interaction between subpopulation all the time and carriers of disease increase from one person to another. This research aims to simulate the migration population of Thailand to estimate infectious diseases in short and long term for one year. We added three terms of demography, statistic of emigration and immigration of population for migration rate by province, birth and death rate of Thailand and festive migration in Thailand holiday into the model. The model was evaluated against the Thai epidemic of H1N1 in 2009 on both levels of regions and provinces. We found that the spread of infectious predicted by the model was two week slower than the actual report. While the number of sick people predicted by the model was significantly different from the data. The week of peak number of infectious predicted by the model was within two week difference compared with the actual report. The research has demonstrated the importance of population movement in modelling of infectious disease. The model still requires further adjustments to reach high level of accuracy for quantitative prediction.
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